Let us
consider for a moment the future. The tendency in the world of books seems to
be towards complete digitalisation. One day, maybe a hundred years from now,
the paper book will more than likely be obsolete. A hundred years is a long
time. It’s practically impossible to imagine such a distant future, but let us
try anyway. Let us make some estimations based on the cultural tendencies of
the present.
How many of the things that exist in our world
can we replace by things that aren’t there, by computer data? There’s no
stopping us, really. Experiences need not be actually experienced, they can be
virtually experienced in a digital environment, just like music is listened to
now in a digital environment, without the presence of a CD or a band. We know,
of course, when we listen to a recording, that the band isn’t there in the room,
it’s just a reproduction of the experience of listening to the band live.
Perhaps in the future this principle will extend to other experiences like
visiting a different country. And someone will say to you, ‘so you’ve been to
Argentina? But have you been there live? You should go there live, it’s much
better.’
Or you will meet someone on the internet and
the bodysuit you wear that is covered with nanochip sensors will communicate to
you direct reproductions of the feelings of touch you would experience if you
were actually there shaking his hand or stroking her back. It will be
essentially, sensibly identical. When the technology arrives, some will say,
‘it’s just not the same!’ but the younger generation will take to it like there
is nothing at all strange about it and they will feed on the glorious ease of
it all, the convenience. With each generation there are new technologies that
we inure ourselves to, leaving the older generations confused and angry. This
trend WILL continue.
In this context it’s not so hard to imagine a
world without books. We can confidently say that within a century or so, books
will be a rarity, reserved for specialist collectors, antique collectors. As
they are outmoded, millions of books will be recycled. People will leave boxes
and boxes of them outside in the streets by the bins, as the charity shops stop
accepting them as donations. There will be desperate conservation projects that
seek to save these books, place them in vast warehouses. Books, paper books
that is, will be museum pieces. The libraries of Oxford and Cambridge will
struggle to justify their existence, as the people who regularly use the bulky
paper collections, die out.
There is no doubt that this is the beginning of
the end.
I think this blog is testament to the fact that people can produce and consume text electronically and still treasure books. I see a future where people have physical copies of their favourite books but read articles, journals or trashy novels on their e reader.
ReplyDeleteIn a similar way to people that have most of their music stored digitally but a few of their favourite records on vinyl. I think the reason this isn't more widespread is down to an intermediate and inferior platform (CDs) usurping records.
I think you could argue that e-books are an inferior platform, but whereas a CD is actually missing some of the acoustic information stored on a record, an e-book's only real downfallen is the potential for eye strain. I don't know much about this, but from what l've heard, reading a book on an e reader is much less strenuous than reading a book on a computer screen and this area is being continually researched and improved.
The only thing that really scares me about the rise of digital books is the way young people will consume them. People raised on digital music can seem to have no affinity for albums, instead opting for a selection of favourite tracks by an artist. Will this mean that people raised on e readers will just store their favourite chapters of a book?
Mate check out this 'part 3, chapter 3' of 1984!
Yeah man that bit's sick, have you read the whole thing?
What! Pussyole, what you chattin you unperson